The longer I stay here the greater it seems the dangers seem to be building. The Mid-East is dividing itself up, between Israel and the US, and Iran. Russia and is siding with Iran, while, the US attempts to maintain its positions of power in Iraq and Afganistan (which just happen to border Iran). Just north of there Gerogia, and other small former Soviet republics are trying to distance themselves from Russia, where the Russians are building up their military force, to apparently quell the resistence that they are facing there.
In South East Asia things remain vague, for me at least, but I'm starting to get the picture of how North Korea and Iran are using the Muslim Background to create a more united dissident front, like in the Phillipines. Japan will remain allied with the United States, as will South Korea and Taiwan, but what China does will finish off the table. With China joining Russia the table makes for a very difficult time if war should break out. With China joining the States, the Asian Theatre will remain noticeably calmer.
As for the Americas I feel much more confident in my understandings. Mexico is and will be with the US, but the main problem, just like in other parts is the heavily armed and organized drug cartels. In the South of Mexico there are 30,000 troops on the border of the State of Chiapas. They have not gone in and will not go in until they need to. Chiapas does not provide a threat the the peace, but they do provide a link. Beyond Mexico is Central America, where the countries are dividing up. Costa Rica and Panama, with large interests from the United States would side with them, while Nicaragua, Honduras, and others would be much more open to siding with Iran, and in the American Theatre Brazil and Venezuela.
That brings me to Venezuela. Where they have been increasing their military power, as well as rhetoric over the past few years. Chavez has taken a stronger and stronger hold of power as well as a much closer relationship with Iran. Furthermore, it seems that Brazilian President Lulu, has been sticking his fingers into every facet of international politics as he now hosts the Deposed President Zelaya from Honduras at the Brazilian Embassy, and is taking stands in Israel's actions, as well as backing Iran. This tightening relationship between Brazil and Iran is just as, if not more important than Venezuela's. Brazil represents a much greater country with much greater interests and powers.
With Venezuela and Brazil united, and the left of Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay coming into greater power you can see how these peices might start to come together. Peru also represents another country that would join into the Bolivarian Pact. However, Chile, Argentina, and Columbia would side with the United States, making for something of an interesting break up of the Americas. With so much Jungle the landscape is ripe for Guerrilla style warfare that no established army has ever been able to combat well.
This brings me to the greatest point that I have. The difference in warfare now. Before it was armies fighting armies. Civilians as casualties. But now, a changing of the guard is taking place. War is taking a more guerrilla style turn, with individuals acting in order to take out greater numbers. Its a war of fear, but of personal fear, not based on National Ideals, but based on the fear that each individual has for their own life. Also, if the Drug Cartels and Gangs which are rampant throughout Mexico, Venezuela, Columbia, and Brazil can unite, this brings a whole nother factor to how sucha war would take place. Just imagine, the Gangs of Brazil united with the States, while the Drug Cartels of Columbia and Mexico uniting with Venezuela. This could make for an entirely new playing field.
Strategically when you look at the Americas the point of contention is and always will be Central America. That is the door. And no matter which way you slice it, any global conflict will have a great focus on Panama and its canal.
As for Africa, I have no idea, but I think it would be a mix of forgotten land and resources like in Nigeria. I see the middle east, the islands of the South Pacific, the Korean Peninsula, and Central/South America as the greatest areas of potential conflict if this buildup of arms and tensions continue. Hah, let alone India, India makes for a great link between the mid-east and asia, their involvement with China's will determine the scale of what occurs.
Mi estimado!
ReplyDeleteI respect you a lot, you know that.
On this subject, I don't share your opinion, though: I don't think we are on the brink of World War III, as you make it sound.
Also, I think that International Politics is not (any more ?) a two-sided coin, with the US and its allies on one side and the other (bad ones, axis of evil?) countries on the other side. It is definitely more complex than that, I believe.
I don't pretend to know in depth about the political situation in all the countries you mention, not even in the Americas. And, let's face it, probably you don't, either. (It'd need quite some political and cultural experience and knowledge to do so, and I'm not sure if any single person in the world does.)
Interestingly enough, you don't mention Europe at all, and I think that you can't just look over a whole continent, let alone one that represents significant economical power. Especially with the ongoing movement within the EU to unify foreign policy, Europe definitely has to be taken into account in international politics.
As for that,
muchos saludos.
elperros
I think you're quite right, about Europe, but I also feel that they, as an entire continent are still very cautious about warfare after the past 150 years. As an economic entity,they have great value and power. They also will do everything possible to avoid war.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about the other participants. People always want to play with their new toys, find out how high they can jump, see if they can gain more land for their country.
Although I do not think we are on the brink, I feel that even beyond what I mentioned, we are starting to see other aspects that aim at preparing us for something like war.
To say that we are not on the brink is true. I just wanted to point out that with the Nationalistic Swell that we are seeing in the US, the global economic crisis, the buildup of arms, tensions, and rhetoric; and the burgeoning allies being made we are making a for a pretty decent recipe which we shouldn't ignore.